The week ending 24th April 2026 saw a sharp reversal of the prior week’s optimism. Oil re-surged above $100/bbl as the Strait of Hormuz stalemate deepened. Iran explicitly declared the strait closed while the U.S. naval blockade persisted, a container ship was fired upon by an Iranian gunboat, and the IEA labelled the situation the “biggest energy security threat in history.” Against this backdrop, equity markets bifurcated: U.S. indices held up on AI earnings strength (Intel at record highs, hyperscaler capex upgrades, Google’s $40bn Anthropic investment) and resilient consumer data, while Europe, India, and Hang Seng bore the weight of re-escalating energy risk. INR fell to ₹94.26/USD, approaching post-war record lows, as FII outflows resumed and crude import costs surged.
Key Themes
- Hormuz Re-escalation: The ceasefire extension did not produce a functioning strait. Iran conditioned reopening on removal of the U.S. naval blockade; Brent touched ~$106/bbl by Friday, a ~17–18% WoW gain.
- U.S. Equity Resilience via AI: NASDAQ gained 2.4% WoW and S&P 500 +0.5%, driven by strong tech earnings. Intel hit record highs on Q2 revenue guidance; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose for an 18th consecutive session, up ~50% in April. Google announced up to $40bn investment in Anthropic, reinforcing the hyperscaler capex theme.
- Commodities Bifurcate: Oil surged 12.6% WoW; gold fell 2.5% as U.S. yields edged higher; natural gas declined 5.6%, structurally decoupled from oil via U.S. domestic dynamics.
- Credit Re-pricing: U.S. 10-year yield rose to 4.30% (+5 bps WoW) and the BDC Index fell 4.0% WoW. JGB yield ticked up 2 bps to 2.43%, with BoJ rate expected to hold at its 27th–28th April meeting.
