The week ending 17 April 2026 was defined by a dramatic late-week geopolitical shift: the announcement of a U.S.-brokered 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, followed by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s declaration that the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” to commercial vessels. Oil prices declined more than 10% on Friday alone, equities surged to new all-time highs for the third consecutive week, and risk assets staged a broad-based V-shaped recovery. The Hormuz reopening however conditional, partially dismantled the inflation-stagflation framework that had been compressing equity multiples and elevating yields since the conflict began on 28 February. With U.S. bank earnings also surpassing expectations and Q1 earnings season tracking well above consensus, markets concluded the week with renewed confidence in the macro resilience thesis.
Key Themes
- Hormuz Opens, Oil declines: Iranian FM Araghchi declared the strait open for the ceasefire period; oil fell over 13% WoW from ~$96.6 to ~$83.9/bbl. The move partially unwinds the energy shock premium, but with the U.S. naval blockade of Iran still formally in effect and conditions disputed, the reopening is fragile rather than definitive.
- Equities at all-time highs: The S&P 500 closed at 7,126, a fresh all-time high (+4.5% WoW). NASDAQ surged 6.2% and closed at 26,672, marking its 13th consecutive positive trading session, the longest streak since 1992. Large-cap growth and AI-linked stocks led, reinforcing the technology/AI structural bid.
- Inflation Relief, Fed on Hold: March PPI rose just 0.5% MoM vs. 1.1% consensus, driven by flat services inflation despite energy pressures. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 6.9 bps to 4.24%, easing financial conditions. However, inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, keeping rate-cut expectations limited to one move by late 2026.
- Crypto Extends Risk-On Rally: Bloomberg Crypto Index gained 6.9% WoW and Bitcoin rose 5.4% to ~$81,500, tracking NASDAQ with high beta.
